Elon Musk has promised more Full Self Driving improvements, and a 10.69.3 version of FSD Beta is coming soon.
Many speculated the enhancements would roll out immediately after Tesla’s AI Day 2022. An update did appear to some of the 160,000 FSD Beta users, but it’s a minor one. However, any advancements in a system already completing 144 trillion operations per second are worth a deeper look.
Tesla has started to roll out FSD Beta 10.69.2.3 (version 2020.20.18), but it has only appeared for a handful of testers so far. It may go out to all 160,000 testers in the near future.
In Beta 10.69 Tesla introduced a new deep lane guidance module that produces a 44 percent lower error rate lane topology. This new module that works with the vector lanes neural network uses video, map data, lane counts and connectivities. According to Tesla’s release notes: This provides a way to make every Autopilot drive as good as someone driving their own commute, yet in a sufficiently general way that adapts for road changes.
Despite Chuck Cook’s rave reviews of the latest FSD 10.69.2.2, Musk promised even more improvements to address the now infamous Chuck’s corner, also known as an unprotected left turn.
Last month Musk tweeted: “Car will move on tighter gaps as we enhance NN (neural networks) velocity predictions for crossing traffic. 10.69.3 next month has some step-change improvements.”
In a separate tweet last month, he committed to the vehicle speeding up more quickly in high-speed traffic situations. The program will better navigate the unprotected left turn in high-speed cross-traffic situations. The latest update states that FSD will use “the appropriate speed profile when approaching and exiting median crossover regions.” Basically, the car will speed up much quicker when it must get in front of traffic that is moving fast, so we expect Tesla to make further improvements in this area.
This latest update should make the overall FSD experience even smoother. With all the expected improvements in FSD Beta 10.69.3, we can’t wait to see what it’ll offer. Beta 10.69.3 is still expected this month.
Elon Musk started Tesla’s AI Day 2022 by saying, “I want to set some expectations with respect to our Optimus Robot,” just before the doors opened behind him. A robot walked out, waved at the audience, and did a little dance. Admittedly a humble beginning, he explained, “the Robot can actually do a lot more than what we just showed you. We just didn’t want it to fall on its face.” Musk’s vision for the Tesla Robot, “Optimus is going to be incredible in five years, ten years mind-blowing.” The CEO said other technologies that have changed the world have plateaued; the Robot is just starting.
Tesla’s CEO envisions Optimus eventually being like Commander Data, the android from Star Trek the Next Generation, except it “would be programmed to be less robot-like and more friendly.” Undoubtedly there is a long way to go to achieve what Doctor Noonien Soong created in Star Trek TNG. What was demonstrated onstage wasn’t at that level, but several videos throughout the presentation highlighted what the Robot is capable of at its very early stage in development. The audience watched the Robot pick up boxes, deliver packages, water plants and work at a station at the Tesla factory in Fremont.
The first Robot to take the stage at AI Day was not Optimus, but Bumble C, another acknowledgement to The Transformers, as Bumble Bee played a significant role in that franchise. However, Bumble C is far less advanced than Optimus, who did appear later but was on a cart.
Several Tesla engineers took turns on the microphone describing some of the most complex elements of the project that was first announced one year ago. Perhaps the best description of the project was the company moving from building a robot on wheels to a robot on legs. However, that may be oversimplifying. For example, the car has two motors, and the Robot has 28 actuators.
Tesla’s brightest demonstrated how the production has come to life over the past eight months. It seems this group of computer masterminds had to become anatomist experts as Tesla took hints from the human body to create a humanoid robot. That is an essential factor in creating Optimus. Everything people interact with is made usable by a human, with two legs, two arms, ten fingers etc. If the Robot differed from what the world is already designed for, everything would have to change. However, recreating the human body and its countless movements would take far too long, so Tesla has stripped it down to less than 30 core movements, not including the hand.
Like the human torso contains the heart, the Robot’s chest holds the battery. It’s projected that a single charge would provide enough for a full day’s work with a 2.3-kilowatt-hour battery. All the battery electronics are integrated into a single printed circuit board within the pack. That technology keeps charge management and power distribution all in one place. Tesla used lessons learned from vehicle and energy production to create the battery allowing for streamlined manufacturing and simple and effective cooling methods.
Tesla showed what the Robot sees, and it looked very familiar. That’s because the neural networks are pulling directly from Autopilot. Training data had to be collected to show indoor settings and other products not used with the car. Engineers have trained neural networks to identify high-frequency features and key points within the Robot’s camera streams, such as a charging station. Tesla has also been using the Autopilot simulator but has integrated it for use with the Robot programming.
The torso also contains the centralized computer that Tesla says will do everything a human brain does, such as processing vision data, making split-second decisions based on multi-sensory inputs and supporting communications. In addition, the Robot is equipped with wireless connectivity and audio support. Yes, the Robot is going to have conversations, “we really want to have fun, be utilitarian and also be a friend and hang out with you,” said Musk.
The 28 actuators throughout the Robot’s frame are placed where many joints are in the human body. Just one of those actuators was shown lifting a half-tonne nine-foot concert grand piano. There have been thousands of test models run to show how each motor works with the other and how to effectively operate the most relevant actuators for a task. Even the act of walking takes several calculations that the Robot must make in real-time, not only to perform but also appear natural. The robots will be programmed with a locomotion code; the desired path goes to the locomotion planner, which uses trajectories to state estimations, very similar to the human vestibular system.
Human hands can move 300 degrees per second and have tens of thousands of tactile sensors. Hands can manipulate anything in our daily lives, from bulky, heavy items to something delicate. Now Tesla is recreating that with Optimus. Six actuators and 11 degrees of freedom are incorporated into the robot hand. It has an in-hand controller that drives the fingers and receives sensory feedback. The fingers have metallic tendons to allow for flexibility and strength. The hands are being created to allow for a precision grip of small parts and tools.
Musk wanted to start AI day with the epic opening scene from Terminator when a robot crushed a skull. He has heard the fears and people warning, “don’t go down the terminator path,” but the CEO said safety is a top priority. There are safeguards in place, including designs for a localized control ROM that would not be connected to the internet that can turn the Robot off. He sees this as a stop button or remote control.
Musk said the development of Optimus may broaden Tesla’s mission statement to include “making the future awesome.” He believes the potential is not recognized by most, and it “really boggles the mind.” Musk said, “this means a future of abundance. There is no poverty. You can have whatever you want in terms of products and services. It really is a fundamental transformation of civilization as we know it.” All of this at a price predicted to be less than $20,000 USD.
Teslas, which make up the majority of electric vehicles, got caught in the crossfire during the September heatwave in California. As a result, owners of zero emissions cars were asked to limit when they plug in to charge. However, now that the emergency has passed and cooler heads have prevailed, several reports are surfacing showing how little EVs drain the electric grind. Spoiler alert, it’s not much, and maybe less than you thought.
Let’s start with California. According to Scientific American, EVs in that state account for: “less than 1 percent of the grid’s total load during peak hours.” California has more than 1 million electric cars, the most of any state in the U.S. But what about the drain caused by the other 26 million EVs worldwide? It’s even lower.
A research branch of Bloomberg studies “trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy,” published a report looking at the global situation. According to BloombergNEF, electric vehicles add around 0.2% to global energy demand. That accounts for 27 million electric passenger vehicles worldwide using 60 terawatt-hours annually.
BNEF zoomed in on a country well ahead of the curve on EV adoption. More than 20 percent of the cars on the road in Norway are plugging in, and these EVs are racking up more miles than ICE cars. Plus, nearly 80 percent of vehicles bought in 2021 in that country are electric. So indeed, the system cannot handle such a drain – right? It turns out EVs in Norway account for 1.4 percent of demand on the grid.
BNEF also crunched the numbers to forecast future consumption. It researched two scenarios for EVs in the next two to three decades. One deals with the main driver of EV growth being market demand. This situation assumes there will be 730 million electric passenger cars by 2040. If that were the case, these passenger vehicles would increase electricity demands by 7 percent. When adding other vehicles like buses and trucks, the demand would rise to 11 percent.
In the other scenario, the report assumes the world will be net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In that case, there will be 1 billion EVs on the road, which would increase demand to 9 percent, and when adding in other vehicles, that number goes to 15. The report went even further. If every vehicle on the road were electric by 2050, the demand on the grid would be 27 percent.
With more people going electric, that demand will grow, and it is up to jurisdictions and utility providers to upgrade the system accordingly. Every country, state and city must plan for this growth to handle the EV revolution.
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